Correspondence: Katharina Hauck, Neil Ferguson


Introduction


This website provides weekly updates of deaths in England and Wales using publicly available data on the provisional number of deaths registered in the past week from the Office of National Statistics (see Data). We show the number of registered all-cause deaths, and the deaths registered as COVID-19 deaths as provided by the ONS for every week beginning in March 2020. We compare the all-cause deaths with the number of deaths we would have expected to see being registered in this week had there been no pandemic, based on numbers of deaths in corresponding weeks of previous years, and determine the number of excess deaths as the difference. We then compare the excess deaths with the recorded COVID-19 deaths, which gives an estimate of excess deaths that were not associated with COVID-19 according to official registers. These estimates of excess non-COVID-19 deaths inform whether the pandemic led to unexpected deaths that were higher (or lower) than what we would have expected in that week (Figure 1). It is possible that all or almost all excess deaths comprise of registered COVID-19 deaths, in that situation there are no excess non-COVID-19 deaths (Figure 2). It is also possible that excess non-COVID-19 deaths are actually lower than expected deaths, once registered COVID-19 deaths are subtracted from excess deaths (Figure 3). We also present total cumulative deaths across all categories. This is the sum of registered all-cause deaths, COVID-19 deaths, expected deaths and excess non-COVID-19 deaths from the week ending 6 March 2020 to 05 November 2021.

It is not straightforward to estimate expected deaths, because the number of deaths in the absence of the pandemic is inherently unobservable. We forecast the expected number of deaths in each week from March 2020 onwards using time series methods and data on deaths going back to 2010. We consider the uncertainty around our estimates using prediction intervals. For further details, see the Methods section.


Possible interpretations of excess non-COVID-19 deaths


If excess non-COVID-19 deaths are higher than expected deaths: First, it is possible that deaths actually caused by COVID-19 are incorrectly attributed to other conditions. This could be due to lack of a diagnosis, nonspecific symptoms before death, multimorbidity making attribution of death difficult, lack of knowledge by the reporting medical staff, or stigma-related concerns of family members. Non-COVID-19 related deaths could be genuinely higher during the pandemic. First, the pandemic has caused disruption to healthcare provision. Hospitals have cancelled elective surgeries in some weeks, possibly resulting in increased mortality in those patients. Second, even critically ill patients may be reluctant to access care, for fear of hospital-acquired infections. Both inability and reluctance to access care may have led to patients’ death, when they would have survived in the absence of the pandemic.

If excess non-COVID-19 deaths are lower than expected deaths: This finding could be due to irregularities in reporting. Second, the reduction in mobility and travel associated with control measures, particularly stay-at-home orders, may result in a reduction in accidents and associated deaths. Third, it is also possible that COVID-19 disease may cause mortality displacement, a short-term forward shift in mortality whereby a certain proportion of deaths due to COVID-19 occurred in patients that would have died of other conditions in the following weeks or months. This implies that over time, COVID-19 deaths that are higher than expected all-cause deaths are followed by lower than expected non-COVID-19 deaths in the following weeks and months, resulting in a deficit in excess non-COVID-19 deaths. In addition, hospitals have increased their capacity over time to treat non-COVID patients or patients changed their behaviour and started visiting hospitals again resulting in a reduction in deaths in line with expected levels.

Variations in deaths: The figures show steep increases and declines for COVID-19 deaths and unexplained deaths in some regions and for some ages over the weeks since March 2020. In some regions and weeks, excess non-COVID-19 deaths are even lower than expected deaths. These findings could have several explanations. First, case numbers vary over the pandemic, leading to variations in hospitalizations and deaths with a 2 to 3 weeks delay on average. Second, there may be irregularities in reporting. For example, in the first weeks of the pandemic, deaths due to COVID-19 may have been wrongly attributed to other conditions instead of COVID-19 but and in later weeks, non-COVID-19 deaths may have been wrongly attributed to COVID-19.


Findings


England: Deaths from week ending 06/03/2020 to week ending 05/11/2021


In the week ending 05 November 2021, there were 10728 registered all-cause deaths in England. These comprise of 892 deaths registered due to COVID-19 and 9836 deaths registered due to other conditions. We would have expected 9985 (95% PI 8445 – 11525) all-cause deaths for that week. This implies that total excess deaths were between -797 – 2283, and comprised of -149 (95% CI -1689 – 1391) non-COVID-19 excess deaths.

Over the weeks ending 6 March 2020 to 05 November 2021, there were 937740 cumulative registered all-cause deaths in England. These comprise of 141433 deaths due to COVID-19 and 796307 deaths due to other conditions. We would have expected 848151 (95% PI 836016 – 860120) all-cause deaths for that period. This implies that total excess deaths were between 77620 – 101724, and comprised of -51844 (95% CI -63813 – -39709) non-COVID-19 excess deaths.


English regions: Deaths from week ending 06/03/2020 to week ending 05/11/2021



Wales: Deaths from week ending 06/03/2020 to week ending 05/11/2021


In the week ending 05 November 2021, there were 797 registered all-cause deaths in Wales. These comprise of 98 deaths due to COVID-19 and 699 deaths due to other conditions. We would have expected 622 (95% PI 377 – 866) all-cause deaths for that week. This implies that total excess deaths were between -69 – 420, and excess non-COVID-19 deaths were not significantly different than the expected deaths.

Over the weeks ending 6 March 2020 to 05 November 2021, there were 61354 cumulative registered all-cause deaths in Wales. These comprise of 8701 deaths due to COVID-19 and 52653 deaths due to other conditions. We would have expected 54887 (95% PI 43591 – 67152) all-cause deaths for that period. This implies that total excess deaths were between -5798 – 17763, and comprised of -2234 (95% CI -14499 – 9062) non-COVID-19 excess deaths.


England and Wales, older age groups: Deaths from week ending 06/03/2020 to week ending 05/11/2021



England and Wales, younger age groups: Deaths from week ending 06/03/2020 to week ending 05/11/2021


England: Weekly deaths since 06/03/2020


## Warning: package 'lubridate' was built under R version 4.0.2
Week ended Reported all-cause deaths Expected (%) Expected 95% prediction interval (%) COVID-19 (%) Excess non-COVID-19 Excess non-COVID-19 95% prediction interval (%)
583 2020-03-06 10,225 10,631 (104.0%) 9,092 - 12,169 (88.9% - 119%) 0 (0%) -406 (-4%) -1,944 - 1,133 (-19% - 11.1%)
584 2020-03-13 10,317 10,419 (101.0%) 8,880 - 11,957 (86.1% - 115.9%) 5 (0%) -107 (-1%) -1,645 - 1,432 (-15.9% - 13.9%)
585 2020-03-20 9,903 9,754 (98.5%) 8,215 - 11,292 (83% - 114%) 100 (1%) 49 (0.5%) -1,489 - 1,588 (-15% - 16%)
586 2020-03-27 10,412 9,666 (92.8%) 8,127 - 11,204 (78.1% - 107.6%) 515 (4.9%) 231 (2.2%) -1,307 - 1,770 (-12.6% - 17%)
587 2020-04-03 15,443 10,196 (66.0%) 8,658 - 11,734 (56.1% - 76%) 3,330 (21.6%) 1,917 (12.4%) 379 - 3,455 (2.5% - 22.4%)
588 2020-04-10 17,563 10,125 (57.6%) 8,586 - 11,663 (48.9% - 66.4%) 5,899 (33.6%) 1,539 (8.8%) 1 - 3,078 (0% - 17.5%)
589 2020-04-17 21,157 9,794 (46.3%) 8,256 - 11,332 (39% - 53.6%) 8,335 (39.4%) 3,028 (14.3%) 1,490 - 4,566 (7% - 21.6%)
590 2020-04-24 20,841 9,952 (47.7%) 8,413 - 11,490 (40.4% - 55.1%) 7,806 (37.5%) 3,083 (14.8%) 1,545 - 4,622 (7.4% - 22.2%)
591 2020-05-01 17,004 9,374 (55.1%) 7,835 - 10,912 (46.1% - 64.2%) 5,748 (33.8%) 1,882 (11.1%) 344 - 3,421 (2% - 20.1%)
592 2020-05-08 11,946 9,591 (80.3%) 8,052 - 11,129 (67.4% - 93.2%) 3,716 (31.1%) -1,361 (-11.4%) -2,899 - 178 (-24.3% - 1.5%)
593 2020-05-15 13,783 9,686 (70.3%) 8,148 - 11,225 (59.1% - 81.4%) 3,624 (26.3%) 473 (3.4%) -1,066 - 2,011 (-7.7% - 14.6%)
594 2020-05-22 11,586 8,947 (77.2%) 7,408 - 10,485 (63.9% - 90.5%) 2,455 (21.2%) 184 (1.6%) -1,354 - 1,723 (-11.7% - 14.9%)
595 2020-05-29 9,228 8,677 (94.0%) 7,139 - 10,215 (77.4% - 110.7%) 1,715 (18.6%) -1,164 (-12.6%) -2,702 - 374 (-29.3% - 4.1%)
596 2020-06-05 9,995 9,472 (94.8%) 7,933 - 11,010 (79.4% - 110.2%) 1,488 (14.9%) -965 (-9.7%) -2,503 - 574 (-25% - 5.7%)
597 2020-06-12 9,391 9,053 (96.4%) 7,515 - 10,592 (80% - 112.8%) 1,057 (11.3%) -719 (-7.7%) -2,258 - 819 (-24% - 8.7%)
598 2020-06-19 8,716 9,071 (104.1%) 7,532 - 10,609 (86.4% - 121.7%) 744 (8.5%) -1,099 (-12.6%) -2,637 - 440 (-30.3% - 5%)
599 2020-06-26 8,414 8,998 (106.9%) 7,460 - 10,537 (88.7% - 125.2%) 574 (6.8%) -1,158 (-13.8%) -2,697 - 380 (-32.1% - 4.5%)
600 2020-07-03 8,542 8,853 (103.6%) 7,315 - 10,392 (85.6% - 121.7%) 497 (5.8%) -808 (-9.5%) -2,347 - 730 (-27.5% - 8.5%)
601 2020-07-10 8,103 8,904 (109.9%) 7,365 - 10,442 (90.9% - 128.9%) 344 (4.2%) -1,145 (-14.1%) -2,683 - 394 (-33.1% - 4.9%)
602 2020-07-17 8,262 8,821 (106.8%) 7,282 - 10,359 (88.1% - 125.4%) 284 (3.4%) -843 (-10.2%) -2,381 - 696 (-28.8% - 8.4%)
603 2020-07-24 8,317 8,803 (105.8%) 7,264 - 10,341 (87.3% - 124.3%) 209 (2.5%) -695 (-8.4%) -2,233 - 844 (-26.8% - 10.1%)
604 2020-07-31 8,404 8,792 (104.6%) 7,253 - 10,330 (86.3% - 122.9%) 183 (2.2%) -571 (-6.8%) -2,109 - 968 (-25.1% - 11.5%)
605 2020-08-07 8,365 8,836 (105.6%) 7,297 - 10,374 (87.2% - 124%) 128 (1.5%) -599 (-7.2%) -2,137 - 940 (-25.6% - 11.2%)
606 2020-08-14 8,767 8,857 (101.0%) 7,318 - 10,395 (83.5% - 118.6%) 125 (1.4%) -215 (-2.5%) -1,753 - 1,324 (-20% - 15.1%)
607 2020-08-21 9,021 8,435 (93.5%) 6,897 - 9,974 (76.5% - 110.6%) 126 (1.4%) 460 (5.1%) -1,079 - 1,998 (-12% - 22.1%)
608 2020-08-28 8,425 8,507 (101.0%) 6,969 - 10,046 (82.7% - 119.2%) 97 (1.2%) -179 (-2.1%) -1,718 - 1,359 (-20.4% - 16.1%)
609 2020-09-04 7,232 9,070 (125.4%) 7,531 - 10,608 (104.1% - 146.7%) 74 (1%) -1,912 (-26.4%) -3,450 - -373 (-47.7% - -5.2%)
610 2020-09-11 9,215 9,011 (97.8%) 7,473 - 10,550 (81.1% - 114.5%) 97 (1.1%) 107 (1.2%) -1,432 - 1,645 (-15.5% - 17.9%)
611 2020-09-18 8,955 9,093 (101.5%) 7,554 - 10,631 (84.4% - 118.7%) 134 (1.5%) -272 (-3%) -1,810 - 1,267 (-20.2% - 14.1%)
612 2020-09-25 9,005 9,172 (101.9%) 7,634 - 10,711 (84.8% - 118.9%) 203 (2.3%) -370 (-4.1%) -1,909 - 1,168 (-21.2% - 13%)
613 2020-10-02 9,257 9,305 (100.5%) 7,766 - 10,843 (83.9% - 117.1%) 296 (3.2%) -344 (-3.7%) -1,882 - 1,195 (-20.3% - 12.9%)
614 2020-10-09 9,308 9,399 (101.0%) 7,861 - 10,938 (84.5% - 117.5%) 401 (4.3%) -492 (-5.3%) -2,031 - 1,046 (-21.8% - 11.2%)
615 2020-10-16 9,833 9,556 (97.2%) 8,017 - 11,094 (81.5% - 112.8%) 622 (6.3%) -345 (-3.5%) -1,883 - 1,194 (-19.2% - 12.1%)
616 2020-10-23 10,070 9,517 (94.5%) 7,979 - 11,056 (79.2% - 109.8%) 913 (9.1%) -360 (-3.6%) -1,899 - 1,178 (-18.9% - 11.7%)
617 2020-10-30 10,166 9,609 (94.5%) 8,071 - 11,148 (79.4% - 109.7%) 1,258 (12.4%) -701 (-6.9%) -2,240 - 837 (-22% - 8.2%)
618 2020-11-06 10,962 9,884 (90.2%) 8,346 - 11,423 (76.1% - 104.2%) 1,771 (16.2%) -693 (-6.3%) -2,232 - 845 (-20.4% - 7.7%)
619 2020-11-13 11,495 9,816 (85.4%) 8,277 - 11,354 (72% - 98.8%) 2,274 (19.8%) -595 (-5.2%) -2,133 - 944 (-18.6% - 8.2%)
620 2020-11-20 11,675 9,850 (84.4%) 8,312 - 11,389 (71.2% - 97.5%) 2,471 (21.2%) -646 (-5.5%) -2,185 - 892 (-18.7% - 7.6%)
621 2020-11-27 11,645 10,170 (87.3%) 8,631 - 11,708 (74.1% - 100.5%) 2,820 (24.2%) -1,345 (-11.5%) -2,883 - 194 (-24.8% - 1.7%)
622 2020-12-04 11,450 10,358 (90.5%) 8,819 - 11,896 (77% - 103.9%) 2,623 (22.9%) -1,531 (-13.4%) -3,069 - 8 (-26.8% - 0.1%)
623 2020-12-11 11,460 10,754 (93.8%) 9,216 - 12,293 (80.4% - 107.3%) 2,530 (22.1%) -1,824 (-15.9%) -3,363 - -286 (-29.3% - -2.5%)
624 2020-12-18 12,113 9,549 (78.8%) 8,010 - 11,087 (66.1% - 91.5%) 2,729 (22.5%) -165 (-1.4%) -1,703 - 1,374 (-14.1% - 11.3%)
625 2020-12-25 10,680 9,942 (93.1%) 8,409 - 11,475 (78.7% - 107.4%) 2,631 (24.6%) -1,893 (-17.7%) -3,426 - -360 (-32.1% - -3.4%)
626 2021-01-01 9,325 12,395 (132.9%) 10,862 - 13,928 (116.5% - 149.4%) 2,831 (30.4%) -5,901 (-63.3%) -7,434 - -4,368 (-79.7% - -46.8%)
627 2021-01-08 16,527 12,305 (74.5%) 10,772 - 13,838 (65.2% - 83.7%) 5,597 (33.9%) -1,375 (-8.3%) -2,908 - 158 (-17.6% - 1%)
628 2021-01-15 16,845 11,820 (70.2%) 10,287 - 13,353 (61.1% - 79.3%) 6,767 (40.2%) -1,742 (-10.3%) -3,275 - -209 (-19.4% - -1.2%)
629 2021-01-22 17,567 11,403 (64.9%) 9,870 - 12,936 (56.2% - 73.6%) 7,956 (45.3%) -1,792 (-10.2%) -3,325 - -259 (-18.9% - -1.5%)
630 2021-01-29 17,455 11,098 (63.6%) 9,565 - 12,631 (54.8% - 72.4%) 8,063 (46.2%) -1,706 (-9.8%) -3,239 - -173 (-18.6% - -1%)
631 2021-02-05 16,259 10,985 (67.6%) 9,452 - 12,518 (58.1% - 77%) 6,990 (43%) -1,716 (-10.6%) -3,249 - -183 (-20% - -1.1%)
632 2021-02-12 14,572 10,866 (74.6%) 9,333 - 12,399 (64% - 85.1%) 5,464 (37.5%) -1,758 (-12.1%) -3,291 - -225 (-22.6% - -1.5%)
633 2021-02-19 12,995 10,823 (83.3%) 9,290 - 12,356 (71.5% - 95.1%) 3,891 (29.9%) -1,719 (-13.2%) -3,252 - -186 (-25% - -1.4%)
634 2021-02-26 11,844 10,611 (89.6%) 9,078 - 12,144 (76.6% - 102.5%) 2,772 (23.4%) -1,539 (-13%) -3,072 - -6 (-25.9% - -0.1%)
635 2021-03-05 10,882 10,731 (98.6%) 9,191 - 12,272 (84.5% - 112.8%) 1,994 (18.3%) -1,843 (-16.9%) -3,384 - -303 (-31.1% - -2.8%)
636 2021-03-12 10,277 10,519 (102.4%) 8,979 - 12,060 (87.4% - 117.3%) 1,428 (13.9%) -1,670 (-16.3%) -3,211 - -130 (-31.2% - -1.3%)
637 2021-03-19 9,673 9,854 (101.9%) 8,314 - 11,395 (86% - 117.8%) 912 (9.4%) -1,093 (-11.3%) -2,634 - 447 (-27.2% - 4.6%)
638 2021-03-26 9,381 9,766 (104.1%) 8,226 - 11,307 (87.7% - 120.5%) 687 (7.3%) -1,072 (-11.4%) -2,613 - 468 (-27.9% - 5%)
639 2021-04-02 7,706 10,297 (133.6%) 8,756 - 11,837 (113.6% - 153.6%) 385 (5%) -2,976 (-38.6%) -4,516 - -1,435 (-58.6% - -18.6%)
640 2021-04-09 8,512 10,225 (120.1%) 8,685 - 11,766 (102% - 138.2%) 360 (4.2%) -2,073 (-24.4%) -3,614 - -533 (-42.5% - -6.3%)
641 2021-04-16 9,782 9,895 (101.2%) 8,354 - 11,435 (85.4% - 116.9%) 346 (3.5%) -459 (-4.7%) -1,999 - 1,082 (-20.4% - 11.1%)
642 2021-04-23 9,312 10,052 (107.9%) 8,512 - 11,592 (91.4% - 124.5%) 244 (2.6%) -984 (-10.6%) -2,524 - 556 (-27.1% - 6%)
643 2021-04-30 9,094 9,474 (104.2%) 7,934 - 11,014 (87.2% - 121.1%) 198 (2.2%) -578 (-6.4%) -2,118 - 962 (-23.3% - 10.6%)
644 2021-05-07 7,412 9,691 (130.8%) 8,151 - 11,232 (110% - 151.5%) 124 (1.7%) -2,403 (-32.4%) -3,944 - -863 (-53.2% - -11.6%)
645 2021-05-14 9,512 9,787 (102.9%) 8,247 - 11,327 (86.7% - 119.1%) 145 (1.5%) -420 (-4.4%) -1,960 - 1,120 (-20.6% - 11.8%)
646 2021-05-21 9,244 9,048 (97.9%) 7,507 - 10,588 (81.2% - 114.5%) 100 (1.1%) 96 (1%) -1,444 - 1,637 (-15.6% - 17.7%)
647 2021-05-28 9,006 8,778 (97.5%) 7,237 - 10,318 (80.4% - 114.6%) 92 (1%) 136 (1.5%) -1,404 - 1,677 (-15.6% - 18.6%)
648 2021-06-04 7,302 9,573 (131.1%) 8,032 - 11,113 (110% - 152.2%) 96 (1.3%) -2,367 (-32.4%) -3,907 - -826 (-53.5% - -11.3%)
649 2021-06-11 9,554 9,154 (95.8%) 7,614 - 10,694 (79.7% - 111.9%) 83 (0.9%) 317 (3.3%) -1,223 - 1,857 (-12.8% - 19.4%)
650 2021-06-18 8,874 9,171 (103.4%) 7,631 - 10,712 (86% - 120.7%) 102 (1.1%) -399 (-4.5%) -1,940 - 1,141 (-21.9% - 12.9%)
651 2021-06-25 8,115 9,099 (112.1%) 7,559 - 10,639 (93.1% - 131.1%) 97 (1.2%) -1,081 (-13.3%) -2,621 - 459 (-32.3% - 5.7%)
652 2021-07-02 8,227 8,954 (108.8%) 7,414 - 10,494 (90.1% - 127.6%) 106 (1.3%) -833 (-10.1%) -2,373 - 707 (-28.8% - 8.6%)
653 2021-07-09 9,092 9,004 (99.0%) 7,464 - 10,545 (82.1% - 116%) 176 (1.9%) -88 (-1%) -1,629 - 1,452 (-17.9% - 16%)
654 2021-07-16 9,120 8,921 (97.8%) 7,381 - 10,461 (80.9% - 114.7%) 213 (2.3%) -14 (-0.2%) -1,554 - 1,526 (-17% - 16.7%)
655 2021-07-23 9,092 8,903 (97.9%) 7,363 - 10,443 (81% - 114.9%) 308 (3.4%) -119 (-1.3%) -1,659 - 1,421 (-18.3% - 15.6%)
656 2021-07-30 9,481 8,893 (93.8%) 7,352 - 10,433 (77.5% - 110%) 389 (4.1%) 199 (2.1%) -1,341 - 1,740 (-14.1% - 18.3%)
657 2021-08-06 9,537 8,937 (93.7%) 7,396 - 10,477 (77.6% - 109.9%) 502 (5.3%) 98 (1%) -1,442 - 1,639 (-15.1% - 17.2%)
658 2021-08-13 9,705 8,957 (92.3%) 7,417 - 10,498 (76.4% - 108.2%) 550 (5.7%) 198 (2%) -1,343 - 1,738 (-13.8% - 17.9%)
659 2021-08-20 9,401 8,536 (90.8%) 6,996 - 10,076 (74.4% - 107.2%) 551 (5.9%) 314 (3.3%) -1,226 - 1,854 (-13% - 19.7%)
660 2021-08-27 9,630 8,608 (89.4%) 7,068 - 10,148 (73.4% - 105.4%) 649 (6.7%) 373 (3.9%) -1,167 - 1,913 (-12.1% - 19.9%)
661 2021-09-03 8,234 9,170 (111.4%) 7,630 - 10,711 (92.7% - 130.1%) 632 (7.7%) -1,568 (-19%) -3,109 - -28 (-37.8% - -0.3%)
662 2021-09-10 10,352 9,112 (88.0%) 7,572 - 10,652 (73.1% - 102.9%) 786 (7.6%) 454 (4.4%) -1,086 - 1,994 (-10.5% - 19.3%)
663 2021-09-17 10,322 9,193 (89.1%) 7,653 - 10,734 (74.1% - 104%) 783 (7.6%) 346 (3.3%) -1,195 - 1,886 (-11.6% - 18.3%)
664 2021-09-24 9,957 9,273 (93.1%) 7,733 - 10,813 (77.7% - 108.6%) 799 (8%) -115 (-1.2%) -1,655 - 1,425 (-16.6% - 14.3%)
665 2021-10-01 9,833 9,405 (95.6%) 7,865 - 10,945 (80% - 111.3%) 715 (7.3%) -287 (-2.9%) -1,827 - 1,253 (-18.6% - 12.7%)
666 2021-10-08 10,064 9,500 (94.4%) 7,960 - 11,040 (79.1% - 109.7%) 582 (5.8%) -18 (-0.2%) -1,558 - 1,522 (-15.5% - 15.1%)
667 2021-10-15 10,438 9,656 (92.5%) 8,116 - 11,197 (77.8% - 107.3%) 640 (6.1%) 142 (1.4%) -1,399 - 1,682 (-13.4% - 16.1%)
668 2021-10-22 10,577 9,618 (90.9%) 8,078 - 11,158 (76.4% - 105.5%) 708 (6.7%) 251 (2.4%) -1,289 - 1,791 (-12.2% - 16.9%)
669 2021-10-29 10,272 9,710 (94.5%) 8,170 - 11,250 (79.5% - 109.5%) 777 (7.6%) -215 (-2.1%) -1,755 - 1,325 (-17.1% - 12.9%)
670 2021-11-05 10,728 9,985 (93.1%) 8,445 - 11,525 (78.7% - 107.4%) 892 (8.3%) -149 (-1.4%) -1,689 - 1,391 (-15.7% - 13%)


England and Wales: Cumulative deaths from week ending 06/03/2020 to week ending 05/11/2021


Geographical unit Reported all-cause deaths Expected (%) Expected 95% prediction interval (%) COVID-19 (%) Excess non-COVID-19 (%) Excess non-COVID-19 95% prediction interval (%)
England 937,740 848,151 (90.4%) 836,016 -860,120 (89.2% - 91.7%) 141,433 (15.1%) -51,844 (-5.5%) -63,813 - -39,709 (-6.8% - -4.2%)
North West 136,387 118,594 (87.0%) 97,754 -140,667 (71.7% - 103.1%) 22,286 (16.3%) -4,493 (-3.3%) -26,566 - 16,347 (-19.5% - 12%)
North East 52,431 45,302 (86.4%) 37,265 - 53,406 (71.1% - 101.9%) 7,713 (14.7%) -584 (-1.1%) -8,688 - 7,453 (-16.6% - 14.2%)
Yorkshire and The Humber 97,335 86,332 (88.7%) 73,562 -100,438 (75.6% - 103.2%) 14,308 (14.7%) -3,305 (-3.4%) -17,411 - 9,465 (-17.9% - 9.7%)
West Midlands 105,845 91,466 (86.4%) 78,083 -104,289 (73.8% - 98.5%) 16,597 (15.7%) -2,218 (-2.1%) -15,041 - 11,165 (-14.2% - 10.5%)
East Midlands 85,815 75,675 (88.2%) 63,563 - 89,795 (74.1% - 104.6%) 12,720 (14.8%) -2,580 (-3%) -16,700 - 9,532 (-19.5% - 11.1%)
East 106,638 94,392 (88.5%) 79,857 -109,678 (74.9% - 102.9%) 16,116 (15.1%) -3,870 (-3.6%) -19,156 - 10,665 (-18% - 10%)
South West 101,880 92,054 (90.4%) 76,347 -108,646 (74.9% - 106.6%) 9,095 (8.9%) 731 (0.7%) -15,861 - 16,438 (-15.6% - 16.1%)
London 99,184 79,557 (80.2%) 67,957 - 90,749 (68.5% - 91.5%) 20,585 (20.8%) -958 (-1%) -12,150 - 10,642 (-12.3% - 10.7%)
South East 152,225 132,945 (87.3%) 111,413 -152,662 (73.2% - 100.3%) 22,013 (14.5%) -2,733 (-1.8%) -22,450 - 18,799 (-14.7% - 12.3%)
Wales 61,354 54,887 (89.5%) 43,591 - 67,152 (71% - 109.4%) 8,701 (14.2%) -2,234 (-3.6%) -14,499 - 9,062 (-23.6% - 14.8%)


England and Wales, older age groups: Cumulative deaths from week ending 06/03/2020 to week ending 05/11/2021


Sex and age group (years) Reported all-cause deaths Expected (%) Expected 95% prediction interval (%) COVID-19 (%) Excess non-COVID-19 (%) Excess non-COVID-19 95% prediction interval (%)
All: 45-64 124,436 105,240 (84.6%) 100,150 - 110,442 (80.5% - 88.8%) 16,368 (13.2%) 2,828 (2.3%) -2,374 - 7,918 (-1.9% - 6.4%)
All: 65-74 165,574 148,140 (89.5%) 140,749 - 156,204 (85% - 94.3%) 23,961 (14.5%) -6,527 (-3.9%) -14,591 - 864 (-8.8% - 0.5%)
All: 75-84 288,632 243,648 (84.4%) 206,320 - 279,518 (71.5% - 96.8%) 46,961 (16.3%) -1,977 (-0.7%) -37,847 - 35,351 (-13.1% - 12.2%)
All: 85+ 389,306 368,201 (94.6%) 361,626 - 375,364 (92.9% - 96.4%) 61,055 (15.7%) -39,950 (-10.3%) -47,113 - -33,375 (-12.1% - -8.6%)
Female: 45-64 48,659 42,719 (87.8%) 40,682 - 44,988 (83.6% - 92.5%) 5,944 (12.2%) -4 (0%) -2,273 - 2,033 (-4.7% - 4.2%)
Female: 65-74 68,124 61,460 (90.2%) 57,860 - 65,259 (84.9% - 95.8%) 8,922 (13.1%) -2,258 (-3.3%) -6,057 - 1,342 (-8.9% - 2%)
Female: 75-84 131,808 111,309 (84.4%) 90,672 - 131,407 (68.8% - 99.7%) 19,486 (14.8%) 1,013 (0.8%) -19,085 - 21,650 (-14.5% - 16.4%)
Female: 85+ 230,617 195,128 (84.6%) 112,818 - 272,203 (48.9% - 118%) 33,156 (14.4%) 2,333 (1%) -74,742 - 84,643 (-32.4% - 36.7%)
Male: 45-64 75,777 62,807 (82.9%) 59,320 - 66,105 (78.3% - 87.2%) 10,424 (13.8%) 2,546 (3.4%) -752 - 6,033 (-1% - 8%)
Male: 65-74 97,450 86,797 (89.1%) 82,737 - 90,791 (84.9% - 93.2%) 15,039 (15.4%) -4,386 (-4.5%) -8,380 - -326 (-8.6% - -0.3%)
Male: 75-84 156,824 135,850 (86.6%) 133,877 - 137,919 (85.4% - 87.9%) 27,475 (17.5%) -6,501 (-4.1%) -8,570 - -4,528 (-5.5% - -2.9%)
Male: 85+ 158,689 142,372 (89.7%) 106,581 - 176,663 (67.2% - 111.3%) 27,899 (17.6%) -11,582 (-7.3%) -45,873 - 24,209 (-28.9% - 15.3%)


Limitations


The pandemic is ongoing, and we only estimate excess deaths until the week ending in 05 November 2021. It is possible that the pandemic will impact on deaths in months and even years to come, including due to delays in cancer treatment resulting in treatable cancer becoming untreatable and causing death occurring months or years later. There is inherent uncertainty in forecasting deaths. We find that our model reliably predicts reported deaths in the pre-pandemic period between July 2019 and February 2020 based on data going back to 2010 (Report 28). However, there is no guarantee that a model that fits the pre-pandemic time period is forecasting well for the pandemic period that saw unprecedented changes in hospital care provision, patient behaviour, and many other factors including possibly the reporting of deaths itself. The uncertainty around our forecasts may take account of some but not all of this uncertainty. Moreover, we cannot take account of irregularities in the reporting of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 deaths. For further limitations see (Report 28).


Website updated on 16/11/2021.